每經AI快訊，京基p降2024年(nian)1月9日，智農著看證(zheng)券華西證(zheng)券發布研報點評京基智農（000048）。養(yang)殖(zhi)(zhi)業化養(yang)殖(zhi)(zhi)研報

事件概述

公司發布2023年12月生豬銷售情況簡報，放量2023年12月，本顯公司銷售生豬17.78萬頭（其中仔豬2.17萬頭），好工華西銷(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入2.44億元；商(shang)品豬銷(xiao)售(shou)均價13.74元/kg。新星2023年1-12月(yue)，京(jing)基p降公司累計(ji)銷(xiao)售(shou)生豬184.50萬頭（其中仔豬23.20萬頭），智農著看證券累計(ji)銷(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入28.09億元。養(yang)殖(zhi)(zhi)業化(hua)養(yang)殖(zhi)(zhi)研報

分析判斷:

出欄放量(liang)，放量(liang)2023年降本效(xiao)果顯著

出欄量方面，本顯2023年12月，好工華西公司銷售生豬17.78萬頭（其中仔豬2.17萬頭），新星當月商品豬銷售均價13.74元/公斤，京基p降環比-6.21%。2023年全年，公司累計銷售生豬184.50萬頭，同比+45.92%，公司1-9月代養生豬出欄量4.5萬頭，我們預估全年為6萬頭，扣除代養出欄量，公司自有產能產能利用率約為79%。成本方面，2023年公司降本成效矚目，據公司投資者關系活動記錄表，2021年/2022年公司育肥豬平均生產成本分別為17.7/16.9元/公斤，受冬春交替期間受藍耳、傳染性胸膜肺炎等疫病影響，生(sheng)豬健康度&存(cun)活(huo)率有所下降，2023Q1育肥豬平(ping)均(jun)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)升(sheng)至(zhi)17.4元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，下半年(nian)，隨著疫病影響緩解&降本(ben)(ben)增效措施生(sheng)效，公(gong)(gong)司生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)6/7/8/9/10月(yue)顯著下降，10月(yue)已降至(zhi)14.8元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，公(gong)(gong)司預(yu)計2023年(nian)年(nian)底生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)達到14.4元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤以內。我們保守(shou)預(yu)計公(gong)(gong)司11月(yue)和12月(yue)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)延(yan)續10月(yue)的(de)14.8元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，另(ling)外(wai)預(yu)計三費(fei)及總部費(fei)用對成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)影響為(wei)1元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，單四季度公(gong)(gong)司完全成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)為(wei)15.8元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，在出欄(lan)均(jun)重為(wei)110-120公(gong)(gong)斤（據投資者問(wen)答(da)）的(de)情況下，公(gong)(gong)司四季度頭均(jun)虧損(sun)約為(wei)200元(yuan)(yuan)。根據公(gong)(gong)司2023年(nian)限(xian)制性(xing)股票激勵計劃(hua)（草案），公(gong)(gong)司今年(nian)商品肥豬平(ping)均(jun)養(yang)殖成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)為(wei)不高(gao)于15.90元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，其中自繁(fan)自養(yang)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)為(wei)14.4元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤左右，代養(yang)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)為(wei)15.50元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤。

地(di)產(chan)業務經營(ying)穩健，收(shou)入確認有望進一(yi)步(bu)降(jiang)低資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)率

今年大部分時間生豬(zhu)(zhu)價格低(di)位運行(xing)(xing)，據(ju)(ju)Wind數據(ju)(ju)，2023年自(zi)繁(fan)自(zi)養生豬(zhu)(zhu)僅(jin)4周為(wei)(wei)盈利(li)，且(qie)(qie)頭均(jun)利(li)潤最高不(bu)過(guo)70元(yuan)，即養殖(zhi)端全年虧損約(yue)11個月(yue)，在此背景下，豬(zhu)(zhu)企(qi)資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率自(zi)2023Q1開始逐步(bu)攀(pan)升，四季度(du)本(ben)為(wei)(wei)銷(xiao)售(shou)旺(wang)季，但生豬(zhu)(zhu)價格旺(wang)季不(bu)旺(wang)，即使公(gong)(gong)司銷(xiao)區(qu)處于豬(zhu)(zhu)價偏高的(de)(de)兩(liang)廣地(di)區(qu)，12月(yue)肥豬(zhu)(zhu)銷(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價已跌破14元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤。長時間虧損&豬(zhu)(zhu)價未來(lai)無明(ming)顯改(gai)善的(de)(de)背景下，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)資金狀況進一步(bu)惡化(hua)，能否順利(li)度(du)過(guo)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)低(di)谷(gu)期對于企(qi)業(ye)(ye)至(zhi)(zhi)關重(zhong)要(yao)。2022Q4-2023Q3,公(gong)(gong)司資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率從84.82%降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)73.78%，據(ju)(ju)公(gong)(gong)司公(gong)(gong)告，公(gong)(gong)司資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率偏高的(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)原因系公(gong)(gong)司商品(pin)房(fang)(fang)預售(shou)時收(shou)取的(de)(de)售(shou)樓款(kuan)項(xiang)計入(ru)合同(tong)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)，截止2023年三(san)季度(du)末，公(gong)(gong)司合同(tong)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)為(wei)(wei)17.57億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，待地(di)產(chan)項(xiang)目銷(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)結(jie)轉確(que)(que)認，公(gong)(gong)司資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率將進一步(bu)下降(jiang)。公(gong)(gong)司控股(gu)股(gu)東京基(ji)集團(tuan)2023年三(san)季度(du)末資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率為(wei)(wei)64%（2022年為(wei)(wei)68.47%），資產(chan)負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率呈下降(jiang)趨勢(shi)，其總資產(chan)1083億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，有息負(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)僅(jin)113億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，且(qie)(qie)房(fang)(fang)地(di)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)務穩健經營(ying)。據(ju)(ju)中指研究院數據(ju)(ju)，2023年1-11月(yue)，京基(ji)集團(tuan)房(fang)(fang)地(di)產(chan)銷(xiao)售(shou)額90.85億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，在深(shen)圳房(fang)(fang)地(di)產(chan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)中排名第八，位居(ju)民營(ying)房(fang)(fang)企(qi)第二。我(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)，房(fang)(fang)地(di)產(chan)銷(xiao)售(shou)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)資金回流數額大且(qie)(qie)確(que)(que)定性較高，能夠完(wan)全覆蓋(gai)其他(ta)應付款(kuan)，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)低(di)谷(gu)下安全性較高。

頂層設計完備&人才儲備充(chong)分，標(biao)桿高(gao)州項(xiang)目已具備持續復制(zhi)能力

高(gao)(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)標(biao)桿項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，2022年銷售(shou)生(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)超(chao)40萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)，占公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)總出欄量(liang)約(yue)32%，育(yu)(yu)肥豬(zhu)平(ping)(ping)均生(sheng)(sheng)產成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)為(wei)(wei)(wei)14.93元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，較公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)低1.97元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。我們(men)認為(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)(cheng)績斐然的(de)主要(yao)原因(yin)在于公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)“6750”樓房養(yang)殖(zhi)真正實現了工業(ye)化生(sheng)(sheng)產。工業(ye)化生(sheng)(sheng)產下(xia)，（1）人(ren)效高(gao)(gao)，人(ren)工成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低：據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)告，高(gao)(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)育(yu)(yu)肥場人(ren)效約(yue)3400-3500頭(tou)(tou)/人(ren)；（2）健康(kang)度高(gao)(gao)，動(dong)保(bao)與死淘成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低：2022年保(bao)育(yu)(yu)育(yu)(yu)肥成(cheng)(cheng)活(huo)率(lv)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)93.5%，全(quan)程(cheng)平(ping)(ping)均成(cheng)(cheng)活(huo)率(lv)近90%。未(wei)來(lai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)將對樓房養(yang)殖(zhi)模式進(jin)行(xing)進(jin)一步(bu)升級，包括優(you)化流(liu)程(cheng)、強(qiang)化環保(bao)體系(xi)和對生(sheng)(sheng)物安全(quan)等作出更合理的(de)安排。人(ren)才(cai)方面，據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)投資者關系(xi)活(huo)動(dong)記錄，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)擁有(you)專家團隊為(wei)(wei)(wei)養(yang)殖(zhi)業(ye)務(wu)保(bao)駕(jia)護航，與院校合作形成(cheng)(cheng)技術生(sheng)(sheng)源儲備(bei)及技術人(ren)才(cai)支持(chi)，內部競聘晉(jin)升成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)補充中高(gao)(gao)層(ceng)崗位的(de)穩定(ding)來(lai)源。我們(men)認為(wei)(wei)(wei)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)完備(bei)的(de)頂層(ceng)設計&充足的(de)人(ren)才(cai)儲備(bei)及公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)平(ping)(ping)的(de)晉(jin)升機制使得優(you)質項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)持(chi)續復(fu)制成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)可能(neng)，未(wei)來(lai)大有(you)可為(wei)(wei)(wei)。據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)投資者關系(xi)活(huo)動(dong)記錄，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)2023年也開(kai)始嘗試代(dai)養(yang)模式，前三季度出欄生(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)6萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)預計今(jin)年代(dai)養(yang)出欄量(liang)約(yue)60萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)，整體規劃出欄量(liang)超(chao)過280萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)。

投資建議

我們(men)分析(xi)：（1）公(gong)司(si)生(sheng)豬(zhu)養殖業(ye)務(wu)穩步(bu)推進，2023年(nian)出欄184.5萬頭(tou)，產(chan)能利用(yong)率已接近80%，豬(zhu)業(ye)板塊持(chi)續為公(gong)司(si)貢(gong)獻(xian)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入；（2）房地產(chan)業(ye)務(wu)是公(gong)司(si)的戰略支(zhi)持(chi)型業(ye)務(wu)，2023年(nian)前三季(ji)度地產(chan)業(ye)務(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入71.1億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，預(yu)售項目陸續入伙交付確認收(shou)(shou)(shou)入，將繼續給公(gong)司(si)貢(gong)獻(xian)可觀的收(shou)(shou)(shou)入和利潤。（3）生(sheng)豬(zhu)價格2023年(nian)持(chi)續低迷，拖累生(sheng)豬(zhu)養殖板塊的業(ye)績。基(ji)于此，我們(men)下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)營收(shou)(shou)(shou)133.97/116.74/139.22億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至(zhi)(zhi)113.46/111.69/139.22億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)歸(gui)母(mu)凈(jing)利潤20.37/10.08/15.19億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至(zhi)(zhi)15.08/8.18/14.95億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)EPS3.89/1.93/2.90至(zhi)(zhi)2.84/1.54/2.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，2024/1/9日股價16.99元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對應23-25年(nian)PE分別為6/11/6X，維持(chi)“買入”評級。

風險提示

生豬(zhu)市場價格波動風(feng)險(xian)，生豬(zhu)產能釋放進程(cheng)不(bu)及預期風(feng)險(xian)，飼(si)料原材料價格波動風(feng)險(xian)，房(fang)地產項(xiang)目推進進展及收(shou)入(ru)確(que)認不(bu)及預期風(feng)險(xian)，前(qian)獨立董事(shi)曾(ceng)被證監會立案風(feng)險(xian)。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本文(wen)內容與數據(ju)(ju)僅供參考，不(bu)構成投資建議，使用前(qian)請核實。據(ju)(ju)此操作，風險自(zi)擔。

(編輯 趙橋)