每(mei)經AI快訊，京基(ji)p降2024年1月9日，智(zhi)農著(zhu)看證券華(hua)西(xi)證券發布研報(bao)(bao)點評京基(ji)智(zhi)農（000048）。養殖(zhi)業化養殖(zhi)研報(bao)(bao)

事件概述

公司發布2023年12月生豬銷售情況簡報，放量2023年12月，本顯公司銷售生豬17.78萬頭（其中仔豬2.17萬頭），好工華西百姓彩票最新網址銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入2.44億元；商品豬銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價13.74元/kg。新星2023年1-12月，京基p降公(gong)司累(lei)計銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)生豬184.50萬(wan)頭（其中仔豬23.20萬(wan)頭），智(zhi)農著看證券累(lei)計銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入28.09億元。養殖業化養殖研報

分析判斷:

出欄(lan)放量，放量2023年降(jiang)本效果顯著

出欄量方面，本顯2023年12月，好工華西公司銷售生豬17.78萬頭（其中仔豬2.17萬頭），新星當月商品豬銷售均價13.74元/公斤，京基p降百姓彩票環比-6.21%。2023年全年，公司累計銷售生豬184.50萬頭，同比+45.92%，公司1-9月代養生豬出欄量4.5萬頭，我們預估全年為6萬頭，扣除代養出欄量，公司自有產能產能利用率約為79%。成本方面，2023年公司降本成效矚目，據公司投資者關系活動記錄表，2021年/2022年公司育肥豬平均生產成本分別為17.7/16.9元/公斤，受冬春交替期間受藍耳、傳染性胸膜肺炎等疫病影響，百姓彩票網生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)健康度&存活率有所下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，2023Q1育(yu)肥豬(zhu)(zhu)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)升至(zhi)17.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，下(xia)半年(nian)(nian)，隨(sui)著疫病影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)緩解&降(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)增效措施(shi)生(sheng)效，公(gong)(gong)司(si)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)6/7/8/9/10月(yue)顯著下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，10月(yue)已降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)14.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，公(gong)(gong)司(si)預計2023年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底(di)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)達到(dao)14.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)以(yi)內。我(wo)們保守(shou)預計公(gong)(gong)司(si)11月(yue)和12月(yue)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)延續10月(yue)的(de)14.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，另外預計三費及(ji)總部費用對成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)為(wei)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，單四季(ji)度公(gong)(gong)司(si)完全(quan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)為(wei)15.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，在出欄均(jun)(jun)(jun)重為(wei)110-120公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（據(ju)投資者問答）的(de)情(qing)況下(xia)，公(gong)(gong)司(si)四季(ji)度頭均(jun)(jun)(jun)虧損約(yue)為(wei)200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。根(gen)據(ju)公(gong)(gong)司(si)2023年(nian)(nian)限(xian)制性(xing)股票(piao)激勵計劃(hua)（草案(an)），公(gong)(gong)司(si)今年(nian)(nian)商品肥豬(zhu)(zhu)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)養殖(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)為(wei)不高(gao)于15.90元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，其中自(zi)繁自(zi)養成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)為(wei)14.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右，代養成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)為(wei)15.50元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)。

地產業務經營(ying)穩健(jian)，收(shou)入(ru)確認有望進(jin)一步降低資產負債率

今年(nian)(nian)大部分時間(jian)生豬(zhu)(zhu)價格低位(wei)運(yun)行，據(ju)Wind數(shu)(shu)據(ju)，2023年(nian)(nian)自繁自養生豬(zhu)(zhu)僅4周(zhou)為(wei)(wei)盈利(li)，且(qie)頭均利(li)潤(run)最(zui)高(gao)(gao)不過(guo)70元，即養殖(zhi)端(duan)全年(nian)(nian)虧損約11個月，在(zai)此背(bei)景下(xia)，豬(zhu)(zhu)企(qi)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率自2023Q1開始逐(zhu)步攀升，四季(ji)度本為(wei)(wei)銷售(shou)(shou)旺季(ji)，但生豬(zhu)(zhu)價格旺季(ji)不旺，即使(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)銷區(qu)處于(yu)豬(zhu)(zhu)價偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)的兩廣(guang)地區(qu)，12月肥豬(zhu)(zhu)銷售(shou)(shou)均價已跌破14元/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。長時間(jian)虧損&豬(zhu)(zhu)價未來無明顯改善的背(bei)景下(xia)，行業(ye)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)狀況進一步惡化(hua)，能否順利(li)度過(guo)行業(ye)低谷期對(dui)于(yu)企(qi)業(ye)至關重要。2022Q4-2023Q3,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率從84.82%降至73.78%，據(ju)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)公(gong)(gong)(gong)告(gao)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)的主要原(yuan)因系公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)商品房(fang)(fang)預售(shou)(shou)時收取的售(shou)(shou)樓款(kuan)項(xiang)計入合(he)同(tong)(tong)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)，截止2023年(nian)(nian)三季(ji)度末(mo)(mo)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)合(he)同(tong)(tong)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)為(wei)(wei)17.57億(yi)(yi)元，待地產(chan)(chan)項(xiang)目銷售(shou)(shou)收入結轉(zhuan)確認，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率將進一步下(xia)降。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)控股(gu)股(gu)東京基集團(tuan)2023年(nian)(nian)三季(ji)度末(mo)(mo)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率為(wei)(wei)64%（2022年(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)68.47%），資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)率呈下(xia)降趨勢(shi)，其總資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)1083億(yi)(yi)元，有息負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)僅113億(yi)(yi)元，且(qie)房(fang)(fang)地產(chan)(chan)業(ye)務穩健經(jing)營(ying)。據(ju)中(zhong)指研究(jiu)院(yuan)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)，2023年(nian)(nian)1-11月，京基集團(tuan)房(fang)(fang)地產(chan)(chan)銷售(shou)(shou)額90.85億(yi)(yi)元，在(zai)深圳(zhen)房(fang)(fang)地產(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye)中(zhong)排名第八，位(wei)居民營(ying)房(fang)(fang)企(qi)第二(er)。我們認為(wei)(wei)，房(fang)(fang)地產(chan)(chan)銷售(shou)(shou)帶來的資(zi)(zi)金(jin)回(hui)流數(shu)(shu)額大且(qie)確定性(xing)較高(gao)(gao)，能夠(gou)完全覆蓋其他應(ying)付款(kuan)，行業(ye)低谷下(xia)安全性(xing)較高(gao)(gao)。

頂層設計完備(bei)&人才儲備(bei)充分，標桿高州項目已具(ju)備(bei)持續復制能力

高(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)標桿項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，2022年(nian)銷售生(sheng)豬(zhu)超40萬頭，占(zhan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)總(zong)出(chu)欄(lan)量約32%，育(yu)肥豬(zhu)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)成(cheng)本(ben)為(wei)(wei)(wei)14.93元/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，較公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)水平(ping)低(di)1.97元/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。我們認為(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)績斐然的(de)(de)主要(yao)原因在于公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)“6750”樓房(fang)養(yang)殖(zhi)真正實現(xian)了工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)。工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)下(xia)，（1）人效(xiao)高(gao)，人工(gong)成(cheng)本(ben)低(di)：據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)告，高(gao)州(zhou)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)育(yu)肥場人效(xiao)約3400-3500頭/人；（2）健康度高(gao)，動(dong)(dong)保與(yu)死淘成(cheng)本(ben)低(di)：2022年(nian)保育(yu)育(yu)肥成(cheng)活率約為(wei)(wei)(wei)93.5%，全程平(ping)均(jun)(jun)成(cheng)活率近90%。未(wei)來(lai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)將對樓房(fang)養(yang)殖(zhi)模式進行進一步(bu)升級，包括優(you)化(hua)流(liu)程、強化(hua)環保體系(xi)和(he)對生(sheng)物安(an)全等作出(chu)更合理的(de)(de)安(an)排。人才方面，據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)投資者關系(xi)活動(dong)(dong)記錄(lu)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)擁有專(zhuan)家團隊為(wei)(wei)(wei)養(yang)殖(zhi)業(ye)務保駕護航，與(yu)院校合作形(xing)成(cheng)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)生(sheng)源儲備(bei)及技(ji)術(shu)(shu)人才支持(chi)(chi)，內部(bu)競聘晉升成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)補(bu)充中高(gao)層(ceng)崗位的(de)(de)穩定來(lai)源。我們認為(wei)(wei)(wei)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)完(wan)備(bei)的(de)(de)頂層(ceng)設計&充足的(de)(de)人才儲備(bei)及公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)平(ping)的(de)(de)晉升機制使得優(you)質項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)持(chi)(chi)續復制成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)可能(neng)，未(wei)來(lai)大有可為(wei)(wei)(wei)。據公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)投資者關系(xi)活動(dong)(dong)記錄(lu)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)2023年(nian)也開始嘗試(shi)代養(yang)模式，前三季度出(chu)欄(lan)生(sheng)豬(zhu)6萬頭，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)預計今年(nian)代養(yang)出(chu)欄(lan)量約60萬頭，整體規劃出(chu)欄(lan)量超過280萬頭。

投資建議

我們(men)分(fen)析：（1）公(gong)司(si)生豬(zhu)養殖業(ye)務穩步推進(jin)，2023年(nian)(nian)出欄184.5萬頭，產能利用率已接近80%，豬(zhu)業(ye)板塊持(chi)續(xu)(xu)為公(gong)司(si)貢獻(xian)收(shou)入；（2）房地(di)產業(ye)務是公(gong)司(si)的(de)戰略支持(chi)型業(ye)務，2023年(nian)(nian)前三季(ji)度地(di)產業(ye)務收(shou)入71.1億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，預(yu)售項目陸續(xu)(xu)入伙交付確認(ren)收(shou)入，將繼續(xu)(xu)給(gei)公(gong)司(si)貢獻(xian)可觀的(de)收(shou)入和利潤(run)。（3）生豬(zhu)價格2023年(nian)(nian)持(chi)續(xu)(xu)低迷，拖(tuo)累生豬(zhu)養殖板塊的(de)業(ye)績(ji)。基(ji)于此，我們(men)下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)(nian)營收(shou)133.97/116.74/139.22億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至113.46/111.69/139.22億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)(nian)歸母凈利潤(run)20.37/10.08/15.19億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至15.08/8.18/14.95億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，下(xia)調公(gong)司(si)2023-2025年(nian)(nian)EPS3.89/1.93/2.90至2.84/1.54/2.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，2024/1/9日(ri)股價16.99元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對應23-25年(nian)(nian)PE分(fen)別為6/11/6X，維持(chi)“買(mai)入”評級。

風險提示

生(sheng)豬市場價格波(bo)動風(feng)險，生(sheng)豬產能釋放(fang)進(jin)程不及(ji)預期風(feng)險，飼料(liao)原(yuan)材料(liao)價格波(bo)動風(feng)險，房地產項目(mu)推進(jin)進(jin)展及(ji)收入確(que)認(ren)不及(ji)預期風(feng)險，前獨(du)立(li)董事曾被(bei)證(zheng)監會立(li)案風(feng)險。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 趙橋)