據國家發改委消息，國家國經光明國家發展改革委國民經濟綜合司負責同志就當前宏觀經濟形勢答記者問。發改發展

問：臨近年底，委中國內外各方面高度關注中國經濟運行情況。前景請問如何看待當前中國經濟形勢和未來發展預期？

答：今年以來，國家國經光明面對復雜嚴峻的發改發展國際環境和艱巨繁重的國內改革發展穩定任務，在以習近平同志為核心的委中黨中央堅強領導下，我們堅持穩中求進工作總基調，前景全面深化改革開放，國家國經光明加大宏觀調控政策實施力度，發改發展著力擴大內需、委(wei)中提(ti)振信心、防(fang)范風險，經濟運行回升(sheng)向好，供給需求穩步改善，結構調整優化加快，就業物價基本平(ping)穩，高質量發展扎實推進(jin)。

宏觀指標表現較好。經濟總量較快增長，前三季度國內生產總值（GDP）同比增長5.2%，增速在全球主要經濟體中保持領先。物價水平基本穩定，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)10個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)居(ju)民(min)消(xiao)費價格(ge)（CPI）同(tong)比上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.4%，與主要經(jing)濟(ji)體高通脹形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)鮮明對(dui)比。就業(ye)(ye)(ye)形(xing)勢總體改(gai)善，10月(yue)(yue)(yue)份全(quan)國(guo)(guo)城鎮調查失業(ye)(ye)(ye)率(lv)為(wei)5%，較2月(yue)(yue)(yue)份高點回落0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點。國(guo)(guo)際收(shou)支(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)持(chi)基(ji)本平衡。生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)供給穩步(bu)回升。農(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)形(xing)勢良好(hao)，預計全(quan)年糧食有望(wang)再(zai)獲豐收(shou)。工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)有所加(jia)快，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)10個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)規模(mo)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)值(zhi)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.1%。服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)勢良好(hao)，服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)指(zhi)數增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.9%，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)三(san)(san)(san)季(ji)度服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)對(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢獻(xian)率(lv)達(da)(da)63%。市(shi)場需(xu)求較快恢(hui)復。消(xiao)費熱點亮(liang)點明顯增(zeng)(zeng)多，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)10個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)社會消(xiao)費品零售(shou)總額同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.9%，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)三(san)(san)(san)季(ji)度最終消(xiao)費支(zhi)(zhi)出對(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)貢獻(xian)率(lv)達(da)(da)到83.2%。投資結構(gou)繼(ji)續優化，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)10個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)投資增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.2%，其(qi)中高技(ji)術(shu)制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)投資增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.3%。質量效益持(chi)續改(gai)善。新動(dong)能(neng)(neng)加(jia)快成(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)(chang)壯大，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)10個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)太陽能(neng)(neng)電池、新能(neng)(neng)源汽車產(chan)量分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)63.7%、26.7%。工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)利潤(run)持(chi)續恢(hui)復向好(hao)，三(san)(san)(san)季(ji)度，規模(mo)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)利潤(run)在連續5個(ge)(ge)(ge)季(ji)度同(tong)比下降后首(shou)次由降轉增(zeng)(zeng)。居(ju)民(min)收(shou)入(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)加(jia)快，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)三(san)(san)(san)季(ji)度全(quan)國(guo)(guo)居(ju)民(min)人(ren)均可支(zhi)(zhi)配收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)比實際增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.9%，比上(shang)(shang)半年加(jia)快0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點。市(shi)場信(xin)心不斷改(gai)善。11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)采購經(jing)理指(zhi)數（PMI）中，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)經(jing)營活動(dong)預期(qi)指(zhi)數為(wei)55.8%，連續2個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)升。國(guo)(guo)際主流聲音看好(hao)中國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)景(jing)，國(guo)(guo)際貨幣(bi)基(ji)金組(zu)(zu)織（IMF）近期(qi)分別(bie)將(jiang)(jiang)2023年、2024年中國(guo)(guo)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速預測值(zhi)從(cong)5%、4.2%上(shang)(shang)調至5.4%、4.6%；經(jing)合組(zu)(zu)織（OECD）近期(qi)將(jiang)(jiang)2023年中國(guo)(guo)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速預測值(zhi)從(cong)5.1%上(shang)(shang)調至5.2%。

展(zhan)望下一步(bu)，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)仍然具(ju)備(bei)較多有(you)利條件和支撐(cheng)因(yin)素。一是(shi)(shi)擁(yong)有(you)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)特(te)色社會主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)義制(zhi)(zhi)度優(you)勢。我們有(you)以習(xi)近平(ping)同(tong)志為核心的(de)(de)(de)黨中(zhong)央的(de)(de)(de)堅(jian)(jian)強(qiang)領(ling)(ling)導，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)特(te)色社會主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)義制(zhi)(zhi)度善(shan)于集中(zhong)力量辦(ban)大(da)事(shi)，高水平(ping)社會主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)義市場(chang)(chang)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)不(bu)斷完善(shan)，這些都(dou)將(jiang)為推動高質量發(fa)展(zhan)提(ti)供(gong)堅(jian)(jian)強(qiang)保(bao)(bao)障(zhang)。二(er)是(shi)(shi)擁(yong)有(you)超大(da)規(gui)模市場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)優(you)勢。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)全球(qiu)規(gui)模超大(da)且(qie)最(zui)有(you)潛(qian)力的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)費市場(chang)(chang)，居民(min)衣食(shi)住行和精(jing)神(shen)文化(hua)需求(qiu)潛(qian)力巨大(da)，短板領(ling)(ling)域(yu)、薄弱環節和開辟(pi)產業(ye)(ye)新領(ling)(ling)域(yu)新賽(sai)道(dao)投資還有(you)很大(da)空間，新型城鎮化(hua)發(fa)展(zhan)也(ye)將(jiang)為需求(qiu)擴大(da)注(zhu)入活力。三是(shi)(shi)擁(yong)有(you)產業(ye)(ye)體(ti)系配(pei)套完整的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)給優(you)勢。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)具(ju)有(you)全球(qiu)最(zui)完整的(de)(de)(de)產業(ye)(ye)體(ti)系、日益(yi)完備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)設(she)施網絡，糧食(shi)、能源資源、重要產業(ye)(ye)鏈供(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈安全保(bao)(bao)障(zhang)能力不(bu)斷提(ti)升，經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)韌(ren)性(xing)進一步(bu)增(zeng)強(qiang)，還有(you)海量數(shu)據資源和豐富(fu)應(ying)(ying)用場(chang)(chang)景等優(you)勢，將(jiang)助推傳(chuan)統(tong)產業(ye)(ye)數(shu)字化(hua)轉(zhuan)型和新興(xing)產業(ye)(ye)加快成長。四是(shi)(shi)擁(yong)有(you)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)深化(hua)改(gai)革開放(fang)帶來的(de)(de)(de)動力優(you)勢。全面(mian)深化(hua)改(gai)革深入推進，支持(chi)(chi)(chi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有(you)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)深化(hua)改(gai)革，促進民(min)營(ying)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)壯(zhuang)大(da)，加大(da)吸引(yin)外資力度，持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)優(you)化(hua)營(ying)商環境，都(dou)將(jiang)不(bu)斷激發(fa)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)積極性(xing)、主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)動性(xing)、創造性(xing)。五是(shi)(shi)擁(yong)有(you)較大(da)的(de)(de)(de)宏(hong)觀調(diao)控(kong)政策空間。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)宏(hong)觀調(diao)控(kong)體(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)更加完善(shan)，政策儲備(bei)工具(ju)不(bu)斷豐富(fu)，在(zai)應(ying)(ying)對國(guo)(guo)(guo)內外風險(xian)挑(tiao)戰中(zhong)宏(hong)觀調(diao)控(kong)經(jing)(jing)驗(yan)不(bu)斷積累，宏(hong)觀政策仍有(you)較大(da)空間，將(jiang)為駕馭各種復雜(za)困難局(ju)面(mian)打下堅(jian)(jian)實基礎(chu)。

總的來看(kan)，今年以來，中國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)戰(zhan)(zhan)勝困難(nan)挑戰(zhan)(zhan)、頂住下行壓力(li)，經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)恢(hui)復(fu)呈現(xian)波浪式(shi)發(fa)(fa)展、曲折式(shi)前進的特征，經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)運行總體回升向好，今年對全球經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增長(chang)的貢獻將達(da)到三分之一，仍然是全球增長(chang)最大引擎。中國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)韌性強、潛力(li)足(zu)、回旋余地廣，長(chang)期(qi)向好的基本面沒(mei)有變(bian)(bian)也不會變(bian)(bian)，我們(men)有信(xin)心、更有能力(li)實(shi)現(xian)長(chang)期(qi)穩定發(fa)(fa)展，并不斷以中國新發(fa)(fa)展為世界帶來新動(dong)力(li)、新機遇。